[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W
TO 6N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N19W TO 3N30W 2N40W...INTO
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W...
SCATTERED STRONG IN THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 55W
AND 60W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 9N13W 9N20W 5N30W 5N40W 8N50W 13N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 98W/99W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND
107W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO
21N80W THAT IS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THIS TROUGH WAS
MORE OR LESS IN THE SAME LOCATION 24 HOURS AGO. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. OTHER AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE TROUGH HAVE DIMINISHED FOR THE
MOMENT...SUCH AS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...AND
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH
OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 86W FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N69W TO 26N75W...ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 21N81W...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W...
IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HEATING. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM 21N62W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N67W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/1200 UTC WAS 1.11 FOR SAINT THOMAS IN
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 0.89 INCHES FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 68W AND 73W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF
81W. SOME OF THE WIND AND SEAS STILL ARE IN THE COASTAL AREAS
OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N69W TO 26N75W...ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 21N81W...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO
NORTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 63W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
MOVES AROUND A SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 30N75W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N48W TO 23N55W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 31N39W. A DISJOINTED AND SEPARATE
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N43W 27N49W 23N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS 26N TO 30N
BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM 21N62W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N67W IN THE EAST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
32N TO THE EAST OF 23W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 480 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
16N60W AT THE EDGE OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OCEAN...THROUGH
19N47W 26N28W...BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE
EAST OF 40W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1024 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N25W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THREE
AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 TO 9 FEET. ONE
AREA IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF 70W. A SECOND AREA HAS TO DO WITH
THE 32N36W 31N39W COLD FRONT. THE THIRD AREA IS TO THE EAST OF
54W...WITH TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net