[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N14W TO
TO 06N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N20W TO 02N34W TO 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 03W...AND FROM
03N-08N BETWEEN 11W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 31W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH
AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE NE GULF ALONG 30N90W TO 26N87W. WHILE
VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...MOSAIC
DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 26N BETWEEN 83W-89W...INCLUDING THE
NEAR COASTAL ZONES IMMEDIATELY E OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA
REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PREVALENT SE OF THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER THE SE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING S OF
26N BETWEEN 82W-87W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE W OF
92W...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OBSERVED IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT W OF 90W. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AND GRADUALLY SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING WITH MOST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING E OF
75W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER TWO NOTABLE AREAS OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST AREA IS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTENSION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF
CUBA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
N OF 19N BETWEEN 75W-85W. THIS ACTIVITY HOWEVER CONTINUES ON A
DIMINISHING TREND OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO THE LOSS OF PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. FARTHER EAST...THE OTHER AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WEAK AND SUBTLE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
EASTERLY TRADE FLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 72W...
INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC AND THIS MANIFESTS ITSELF AT THE SURFACE WITH A 1022 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N72W. CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED OVER THE REGION
N OF 20N W OF 60W. FARTHER EAST...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
IMPACTING THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THAT IS RESULTING IN A
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 29N45W SW TO 24N55W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN
43W-60W. THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE NE
CARIBBEAN SEA REGION WITH STRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING S OF 20N
BETWEEN 55W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 27N27W. OF NOTE...EXAMINING EARLIER VISIBLE METEOSAT-9
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER
TRACKING PRODUCT...A LARGE AREA OF DUST IS OBSERVED EXTENDING
OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA. THE SUSPENDED DUST IS MOST
CONCENTRATED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N16W TO
14N30W...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND ENCOMPASSES A
LARGER OVERALL AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC FROM
10N-23N E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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