[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
05N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N18W TO 01N28W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 12W-17W...AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 19W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST TO 14N77W IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST EAST OF THE GULF
REGION...A SURFACE TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM 26N83W TO 21N87W...
CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND
DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTED THE PAST FEW DAYS THAT THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N W OF 87W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL ALABAMA TO 29N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N97W.
GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT
ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 82W-89W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
MUCH OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR
ALOFT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOWEVER PRESENT AND ADVECTING OVER
TWO AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST AREA IS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N83W TO 21N87W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
MUCH OF THE CONVERGENCE IS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-82W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE OTHER AREA OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN
59W-67W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND OVERCAST CLOUDINESS W OF 68W.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 20N-28N
BETWEEN 68W-81W. TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALONG 53W AND
SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N53W TO 30N60W TO
30N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED N-NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N33W. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGING AND IS ANALYZED FROM 29N50W TO 23N52W. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 45W-54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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