[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N12W TO 2N25W 1N28W...TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...CONTINUING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG INLAND COVERING MUCH
OF SIERRA LEONE AND IN SOUTHERN LIBERIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
IVORY COAST...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO
THE EAST OF 10W...FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 26W...AND FROM
1N TO 6N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W
AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 25N79W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 24 HOURS
AGO HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD...NEAR 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N86W 20N87W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER AND THE SURFACE TROUGH
HAVE BEEN SEPARATING THEMSELVES FROM EACH OTHER. THE CONSTANT
PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMAS...WHERE IT HAS BEEN LINGERING FOR THE LAST THREE
DAYS. RAINSHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WATERS...STILL TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 84W...INCLUDING IN PARTS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND 93W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING ON 01/1200 UTC IN THE BAHAMAS ARE 0.65 INCHES FOR
FREEPORT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4... FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT
THE EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE SEA HEIGHTS
POSSIBLY REACHING 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE EAST OF 88W FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM THE 26N75W ATLANTIC OCEAN
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 27N86W 20N87W. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN IN THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 21N84W NEAR WESTERN CUBA...
TO 17N80W AND 17N70W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 9N77W BEYOND 8N83W IN WESTERN
PANAMA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA NEAR
9N77W...EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 6N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 84W...FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 24 HOURS.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IN THE COASTAL
AREAS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W
AND 77W...EAST WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 25N79W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FROM 24 HOURS
AGO HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD...NEAR 26N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
NOW. THE CONSTANT PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...WHERE IT HAS BEEN LINGERING FOR
THE LAST THREE DAYS. RAINSHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...STILL TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 84W...INCLUDING
IN PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING ON 01/1200 UTC IN THE BAHAMAS ARE 0.65 INCHES FOR
FREEPORT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N50W 26N51W 22N52W. THIS TROUGH HAS
BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 24N55W. THIS
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO
30N55W...29N60W AND 30N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N49W 29N55W 29N63W 30N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N28W TO 19N31W AND 12N37W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 22N33W TO 9N36W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ABOUT THREE AREAS OF 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 8 TO 9 FEET. ONE AREA IS MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF 72W.
A SECOND AREA HAS TO DO WITH THE 32N50W 30N69W COLD FRONT.
THE THIRD AREA IS TO THE EAST OF 55W...WITH TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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