[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO
05N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N15W TO 03N25W TO 01N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 25W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE
SW NORTH ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM 25N83W TO
19N84W...CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE AND DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTED THIS SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON
WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-26N W OF
87W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W TO
28N92W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. GENERALLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE GULF THIS EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24N-28N W
OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
MUCH OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR
ALOFT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOWEVER PRESENT AND ADVECTING OVER
TWO AREAS OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST AREA IS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N83W TO 19N84W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
MUCH OF THE CONVERGENCE IS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 66W-83W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE OTHER AREA OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 59W-66W...
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AND OVERCAST CLOUDINESS W OF 70W. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 71W-81W. TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THIS AREA... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIPS SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ALONG 55W AND SUPPORTS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 32N56W TO 30N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED
N-NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N33W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING AND IS
ANALYZED FROM 27N52W TO 23N51W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 46W-57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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