[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE NRN
COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 9N13W...TURNING SW TO NEAR 2N21W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W...THEN
SLIGHTLY NW TO NEAR 1N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-6N E OF 17W INCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS OF BENIN...TOGO
...GHANA...AND THE IVORY COAST. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION
ARE FROM 5S-3N BETWEEN 24W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA
STRAITS EXTENDING FROM S OF MARCO ISLAND NEAR 25N81W TO 24N87W
BECOMING WEAK TO 24N95W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS WITHIN 50 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 23N E OF 85W. A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS ARE
ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT
BY A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING NW OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N93W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE OF THE GULF TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND
SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A FEW CLUSTERS OF
LOW-TOP SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF
GUADALOUPE AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN
WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PASS E THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT
AND MONDAY..THEN DISSIPATING ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 33N79W...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N73W TO ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR BOCA RATON CONTINUING INTO THE FAR SE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WRN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N58W
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA W OF 50W. A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING A A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N39W TO 28N47W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 28N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE S OF THIS FRONT...A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 23N48W TO 17N53W. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC.
THE W ATLC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE W ATLC BY WEDNESDAY AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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