[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W 6N17W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO
ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-40W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR 2W-16W INCLUDING THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF GHANA AND THE IVORY COAST. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 23W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYERED LOW/TROUGH THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES THIS WEEK IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE CONUS INTO THE W ATLC
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 25/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND SARASOTA
ALONG 26N85W TO 25N88W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 25N92W. SCATTERED
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
SE OF THE FRONT E OF 86W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING NW
OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH INLAND OVER NE TEXAS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM
22N92W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 19N94W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT SE OF THE GULF BY EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF TUE THROUGH THU. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE NE COASTAL PLAINS THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA S OF
20N. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N83W TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 20N60W INCLUDING PORTION OF CUBA...
JAMAICA...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO
BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 75W-79W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA BETWEEN
58W-62W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PASS E
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN WATERS
TONIGHT AND MON DISSIPATING ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AT
25/1500 UTC NEAR 32N77W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 28N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE
FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
AREA FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 73W-81W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS GIVING WAY TO THE ABOVE FRONT BUT IS
STILL ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N63W. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W ALONG 28N53W TO 29N57W WHERE
IT DISSIPATES TO 30N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED S OF THIS FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 23N46W TO 17N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH IS IN THE
E ATLC NEAR 24N35W. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE E ATLC FROM THE ITCZ
AXIS/MONSOON TROF TO 25N E OF 25W AND IS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R
PG DUST IMAGERY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC
AND CARIBBEAN AND IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA PRODUCING THIN HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE W
ATLC FRONT WILL CONTINUE E PASSING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TUE
AND WED. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE W ATLC ALONG 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W WED NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ALONG 20N
THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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