[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 2N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N22W TO
S OF THE EQUATOR AT 1S30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 2W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 11W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-5S BETWEEN 25W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 25N80W TO 23N84W MOVING E. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR ALONG THE FRONT S OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS. A SURFACE HIGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. WINDS OVER FLORIDA AND THE
E GULF ARE FROM THE NW AT 10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF SUPPORTING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVER
THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N88W TO
GUATEMALA AT 15N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE WITH 45 NM
OF THE TROUGH. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN
64W-68W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...
HONDURAS...AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. ELSEWHERE
...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N AND E OF 70W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...
AND HONDURAS ...AS WELL AS OVER SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W
TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 26N TO INCLUDE THE
N BAHAMAS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
28N56W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N37W TO 27N48W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A PLUME OF
AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W AS NOTED
FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH FRONTS TO
STEADILY MOVE E. THE W ATLANTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
CONVECTION WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT WILL HAVE RAIN AND
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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