[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
07N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N14W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W AND ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 40W THEN
TO 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 09W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S
OF 03N BETWEEN 25W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 30N94W THEN S-SW TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WHILE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. EAST OF THE FRONT...FRESH TO STRONG
SE WINDS PREVAIL AS NOTED ON RECENT SHIP...BUOY...AND OIL
PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS. THESE WINDS WERE ALSO CONFIRMED BY
EARLIER EVENING ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. WEST OF
THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT
ARE FORECAST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER. BY EARLY FRIDAY...REMNANT SURFACE
TROUGHING WILL BECOME ABSORBED AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD THAT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MOST OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W UNDER MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. EAST
OF 70W...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS STREAMS NE OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND SE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR
ALOFT AND A RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTING...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE
WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTS. MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE
TRADES WITH HIGHER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC DUE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NORTH ATLC. THIS OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF BERMUDA
NEAR 35N65W. E-NE WINDS PREVAIL W OF 50W ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WITH A STRONGER BAND OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS
NOTED FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 50W AND THE BAHAMAS ON A RECENT
21/0148 UTC ASCAT PASS. FARTHER EAST AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN
30W-50W...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 34N36W TO 32N45W TO 34N56W
AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 32N32W TO 25N35W AND CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 28N. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N22W TO 23N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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