[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO
05N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N13W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 24W THEN TO 02S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN
12W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN
17W-21...FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 23W-30W...AND S OF 03N BETWEEN
30W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS NEAR 33N101W THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 30N93W THEN S-SW
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. EAST OF THE FRONT...FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS PREVAIL AS NOTED ON RECENT SHIP...BUOY...AND OIL
PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WERE ALSO
CONFIRMED BY EARLIER ASCAT AND WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES.
WEST OF THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO
30 KT ARE FORECAST IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER. BY EARLY
FRIDAY...REMNANT SURFACE TROUGHING WILL BECOME ABSORBED AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD THAT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MOST OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W UNDER MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. EAST
OF 70W...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS STREAMS NE OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND SE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR
ALOFT AND A RATHER BENIGN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTING...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS SW HISPANIOLA AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG
THE WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTS. MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE
TRADES WITH HIGHER WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC DUE TO BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NORTH ATLC. THIS OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF BERMUDA
NEAR 36N67W. E-NE WINDS PREVAIL W OF 50W ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WITH A STRONGER BAND OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS
NOTED FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 55W AND THE BAHAMAS ON AN EARLIER
21/0148 UTC ASCAT PASS. FARTHER EAST AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN
30W-50W...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 31N45W TO 32N55W
AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
32N31W TO 26N35W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY N OF 29N. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS
FROM 32N22W TO 27N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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