[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
7N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
7N14W TO 3N20W TO 01N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W THEN TO SOUTH
AMERICA AT 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 27W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 30N94W 24N98W.
A PREFRONTAL SHEARLINE IS ALONG 30N93W 23N98W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE
SHEARLINE. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING E. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT. 15-25 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF AND THE
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
84W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
CLOUD HAS ADVECTED OVER THE NW GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER INLAND COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. 10-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS
ARE OVER INLAND W PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 68W S OF 15N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD HAS
ADVECTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N66W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N36W TO 27N41W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE PLUME OF
AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 35W AS NOTED
FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 55W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 7N-15N W OF 55W. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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