[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
04N12W TO 02N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W THEN TO 02S44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 15W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH
AXIS ALONG 91W. THIS RIDGE LIES ON THE HEELS OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AT
THE SURFACE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS A 1027 MB HIGH
ANCHORED NORTH OF BERMUDA CENTERED NEAR 36N65W THAT EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS SW TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W THEN
WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W.
PRIMARILY E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL AT NOTED ON RECENT SHIP...
BUOY...AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS WITH STRONGER WINDS W OF
90W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND IS FORECAST TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SE TO S WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BRISK IN THE
20 TO 25 KT RANGE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO N-NW OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W INTO
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 24N70W TO 16N83W AND IS
PROVIDING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. AS
A RESULT...CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN VERY TRANQUIL AND
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE
THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND
SUBSIDENT...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO
STREAM NE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES MAINLY E OF
70W. THE ENTIRE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF E-NE TRADES
GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA COASTS. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SNAKES
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W TO
27N65W TO 20N74W AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 32N50W TO 31N58W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SE OF THE FRONT FROM 32N43W TO 28N47W WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 32N43W TO 27N50W. FARTHER SW AT THE SURFACE...A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 20N65W TO 26N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 56W-64W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED W-NW OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR
44N16W. ALSO OF NOTE...EXAMINING EARLIER METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE
IMAGERY...GOES-R RGB DUST IMAGERY...AND THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR
LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT...AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST
REMAINS SUSPENDED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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