[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182323
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W AND
GOES TO 2N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N17W...PASSING THROUGH
THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO 1S30N TO BRAZIL AT 2S44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM
1N-3N BETWEEN 13W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. 5-15 KT
SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE
GULF AND STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LIGHTNING
DETECTION SYSTEM SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND S
MEXICO S OF 20N BETWEEN 95W-100W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD HAS ADVECTED OVER THE GULF FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. IN CONTRAST STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER
FLORIDA AND W CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ON SHORE
SURFACE FLOW TO HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS
OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER INLAND COLOMBIA NEAR 6N73W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
3N-11N BETWEEN 71W-77W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS
10-15 KT NE TO E SURFACE FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SIMILAR SHOWERS
ARE OVER COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW TO W
FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF
COSTA RICA. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HIGH CLOUD HAS ADVECTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 39N65W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ESE TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH
I N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 22N64W TO 26N62W MOVING W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 58W-64W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 26N58W 30N51W MOVING W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE PLUME OF
AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 20N-32N E OF 33W AS
NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 60W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS E OF 65W.
EXPECT...SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS E OF THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-17N W OF 57W. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 55W-65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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