[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
09N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W THEN TO 03S43W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W. THIS RIDGE LIES EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH PLENTY OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AT THE
SURFACE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS A 1023 MB HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N79W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS SW TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 23N98W. PRIMARILY E TO SE WINDS
PREVAIL AS NOTED ON RECENT SHIP...BUOY...AND OIL PLATFORM
OBSERVATIONS WITH STRONGER WINDS W OF 90W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AND IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SE TO S
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BRISK IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE UNTIL
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N-NW OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W INTO WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 25N70W TO 17N79W AND IS
PROVIDING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. AS
A RESULT...CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN TRANQUIL AND
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE. EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE
THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND
SUBSIDENT...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO
STREAM NE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES MAINLY E OF
70W. THE ENTIRE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF E-NE TRADES
GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA COASTS. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AHEAD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SNAKES
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N56W TO
26N70W TO 20N75W AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 32N48W TO 31N54W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SE OF THE FRONT FROM 32N42W TO 24N47W WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 32N42W TO 27N49W. FARTHER SW...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS AND PREVIOUS SURFACE TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE HAS WEAKENED WITH REMAINING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 53W-62W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE
IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 46N10W. ALSO OF NOTE...EXAMINING LATEST
METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE IMAGERY...GOES-R RGB DUST IMAGERY...AND THE
CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT...AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
AFRICAN DUST REMAINS SUSPENDED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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