[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160615 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N15W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG
3N21W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3S42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 15W-21W AND FROM 3N
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING
W ACROSS THE SE GULF AND AT 16/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 25N83W TO
THE W TIP OF CUBA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 81W-85W INCLUDING PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AND ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE ALABAMA COAST NEAR 29N88W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS COVERING THE AREA
N OF 15N W OF 75W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN WHERE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 60W-74W INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THESE
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BANK LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-80W TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN
TONIGHT. THE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW SE
OF NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH 32N72W OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 70W-73W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 67W FROM 21N-27N
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 62W-70W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N54W TO
20N55W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM W OF
BERMUDA AND A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 900 NM E OF BERMUDA. A NARROW
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N27W TO NEAR
24N38W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR
32N39W TO 28N42W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S
OF 23N E OF 75W. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM S OF THE
AZORES. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO WILL DRIFT W OVER
THE DAY FRIDAY AND DISSIPATE BY SAT. OTHERWISE THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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