[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N16W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG
1N22W 1N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 2S44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W-21W AND FROM 4N
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
MOVING W ACROSS THE SE GULF AND AT 16/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM
25N85W TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 80W-88W INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM
THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO GALVESTON TEXAS. THIS IS
LEAVING THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS COVERING THE AREA
N OF 15N W OF 80W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR PREVAIL ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE S CARIBBEAN WHERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 60W-75W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD AND
ABC ISLANDS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THESE TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BANK LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-80W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM
NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW SE
OF NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH 32N68W OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
IS E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 28N72W TO 22N67W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 64W-74W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO
25N54W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 50W-56W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY A 1028 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N73W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 25N E
OF 36W TO OVER AFRICA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN. A
WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
E ATLC ANCHORED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY A 1029 MB HIGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A 1029 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC. W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SW AND WEAKEN TONIGHT
THROUGH MON BEFORE BEING REPLACED BY STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS W ATLC AND INTO FLORIDA MON NIGHT AND TUE.
SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY W AND WEAKEN
THROUGH SUN. CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT W
THROUGH SUN AND DISSIPATE ON MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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