[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 9N14W AND
GOES TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N15W TO 4N20W...PASSING
THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO BRAZIL AT 3S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 26W-30W...AND FROM
1S-2S BETWEEN 21W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
MISSISSIPPI NEAR 29N89W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 84W-86W. FURTHER S...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO W CUBA ALONG 26N82W
22N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA S OF 27N. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 97W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N W OF 85W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER INLAND COLOMBIA NEAR 5N75W.
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E
OF 80W WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS 10-15 KT NE SURFACE FLOW.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF
14N E OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE
OVER COSTA RICA...HONDURAS...AND S GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SW TO W FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N70W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 26N53W 21N53W MOVING W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
51W-56W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 28N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1028 HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 36N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE N BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 73W-80W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-14N W OF 57W. ALSO
EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC
FROM 23N-27N W OF 62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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