[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO
5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 3N25W...PASSING THROUGH
THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO 3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 22W AND
29W...FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION
ALSO IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 17W AND 40W IN
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO AND
TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
PART OF THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES/
COMBINES WITH SEPARATE AND INDEPENDENT CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS THE SAME TROUGH THAT COVERED THE
BAHAMAS...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE 24 HOURS
AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED ACROSS FLORIDA FROM EAST TO WEST
DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. THE SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
26N81W IN SOUTH FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC VORTEX IN THE LOW
CLOUDS THAT IS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. RETURN SURFACE
SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD TO THE WEST OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N88W
ALONG THE BORDER OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 77W/78W
ALONG 32N...TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE JAMAICA
CHANNEL. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...TOWARD
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EVERYTHING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE IS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND
NICARAGUA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS EASTERLY...MOVING THE LOW
CLOUDS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WESTWARD EVERYWHERE TO
THE EAST OF 77W. SOME OF THE SURFACE WIND FLOW TURNS TOWARD THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AT 77W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N.
THE REST OF THE WIND FLOW CONTINUES IN A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION
ELSEWHERE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN INLAND AREAS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA GUATEMALA TO PANAMA AS THE CLOUDS REACH LAND WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF
BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 16N
BETWEEN 66W AND 77W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 67W.
CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND
78W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ARE FOR WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST-
TO-EAST FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
8 TO 14 FEET. A SECOND AREA OF WIND AND SEAS IS FROM 10N TO
18N TO THE EAST OF 81W...WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST
AT 20 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET IN
EASTERLY SWELL. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS SITUATION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 77W/78W
ALONG 32N...TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE JAMAICA
CHANNEL. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST
24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 79W
AND 81W...AND FROM THE BAHAMAS A BIT EASTWARD FROM 24N TO 26N
BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N66W 22N67W
24N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM
23N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N32W...TO 28N39W...TO A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N48W...TO 21N54W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N40W TO 27N49W TO 28N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N54W
22N53W. PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE AREA FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN
45W AND 50W. MOST OF THAT HAS WEAKENED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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