[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG
3N25W 1N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 3S41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS INLAND OVER MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 14/0900 UTC EXTENDING
FROM 22N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N92W BUT IS NOT
PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC AND A 1030 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA
TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST. SE TO E RETURN COVERS THE GULF WHICH
IS CONVERGING WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S
OF 24N E OF 86W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC DOMINATES
THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE
CARIBBEAN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG
NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS ARE BEING USHERED IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS LEAVING THE
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC ALONG 77W TO THE N
COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM JUST E THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N72W TO BEYOND 32N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1030
MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM E OF BERMUDA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N42W TO NEAR 22N60W
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W ALONG 28N42W TO 25N47W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT S
OF 27N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
TROPICAL ATLC S OF 26N E OF 60W WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 26N27W TO BEYOND 32N24W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES.
THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE AREA OF DISSIPATING
AFRICAN DUST COVERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE ITCZ TO 28N E
OF 40W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net