[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO
4N20W TO 4N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N26W TO 1N30W...PASSING
THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 2S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 30W AND
35W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N
BETWEEN 20W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES MEXICO AND TEXAS...
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. PART OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES TOWARD THE BAHAMAS-TO-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-TO-17N75W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA/SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA
1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...THROUGH WESTERN LOUISIANA AND
EAST TEXAS...INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 25N82W 24N84W 23N88W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 17N75W IN
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO
THE SOUTH OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
THIS FLOW ULTIMATELY APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER. THE
TWO SEPARATE WIND REGIMES ARE RESPONDING TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
24N55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W
AND 82W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE AS BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE INLAND AND WESTWARD FROM NICARAGUA TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS...AND IN CLOUDINESS THAT IS BANKED ALONG THE COAST
FROM 81W IN PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. CURRENT AND
FORECAST WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS ARE FOR WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST-TO-NORTH FROM
20 TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 TO 13 FEET.
A SECOND AREA OF WIND AND SEAS IS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W
AND 83W...WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST 20 KNOTS...AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET IN EASTERLY SWELL. EXPECT
TODAY ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...NORTHEAST-
TO-EAST WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING TO 8 FEET.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W...
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...TO 17N75W IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N TO
26N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM
21N TO 30N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N43W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 24N55W...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N39W...TO 31N37W 29N40W AND 25N47W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES
FROM 25N47W TO 24N50W 23N55W 24N60W AND 26N65W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N TO
27N BETWEEN 45W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM
21N TO 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W...AND FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 52W
AND 63W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF
30N TO THE EAST OF 21W...ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N11W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS CENTERED AROUND 26N24W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS COMPARATIVELY
WEAK AT THE MOMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net