[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W CONTINUING ALONG
2N17W 2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 3S42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-40W AND
FROM 1N INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 47W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS INLAND OVER MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 14/0300 UTC EXTENDING
FROM 22N90W TO NW GUATEMALA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC AND A 1030 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA TO ALONG
THE N GULF COAST COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. SE TO E RETURN
COVERS THE GULF WHICH IS CONVERGING WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 86W
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO
17N79W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS
BETWEEN 83W-87W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC ALONG 79W ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W TO BEYOND 32N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1030
MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM E OF BERMUDA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W TO NEAR 22N62W
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N39W TO 29N42W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 26N46W TO
24N48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF
23N E OF 60W WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N34W TO
BEYOND 32N26W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THE AREA OF DISSIPATING AFRICAN DUST COVERING THE E
TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE ITCZ TO 28N E OF 46W. W ATLC SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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