[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COAST OF AFRICA...AND THE BORDER
OF GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU...NEAR 11N15W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR
5N19W AND IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 33W AND 40W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 3S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 18W AND 32W...
AND FROM 2S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN EASTERN
NEW MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. ALL THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MEXICO CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...THAT IS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W...
IS BEING BLOWN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST LOW
PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD IN RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW...
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 19N94W 23N88W 27N85W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 80W ALONG THE PANAMA COAST...ACROSS
PANAMA...CROSSING TO THE SOUTH OF 15N70W...EXITING THE AREA
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N62W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 26N60W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO
15N75W...TO 12N79W...BEYOND COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS RELATIVE TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT ARE IN NEW MEXICO
AND MEXICO RIGHT NOW. THE CURRENT WIND CONDITIONS IN...AND THE
FORECAST WIND CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR...THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W ARE WINDS FROM NORTHEAST-TO-EAST FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FEET IN NORTHEASTERLY SWELL.
OTHER WIND CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 79W WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO
14 FEET...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 68W WINDS FROM
NORTHEAST-TO-EAST FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 8 TO 11 FEET. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N60W 14N70W 9N78W. LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE
WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 29N67W TO
28N73W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 28N BETWEEN 73W
AND 79W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 28N79W...ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 27N80W ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST...TO 25N70W BEYOND 32N60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N60W TO A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N60W TO 24N61W AND 21N62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN
20W AND 50W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A TROUGH THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N31W TO 28N32W TO 20N33W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE EAST
OF 50W. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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