[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102338
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS TROPICAL AND WEST
AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N18W TO
2N24W. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR
11N20W. THE SURFACE TROUGH...NOR THE LOW CONTAIN ANY CONVECTION.
THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 2N25W ALONG 1S35W TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL AT 2S43W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OBSERVED ALOFT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1017 MB LOCATED OVER
THE NW GULF...RIGHT OVER THE MATAGORDA BAY TEXAS. THIS LOW IS
DRIFTING INLAND TOWARDS THE N-NW...AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW
CENTER SOUTHWARD ALONG 94W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
CURRENTLY MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 20
KT EAST OF THE LOW AND AND FRONT. DESPITE THE BROAD MULTI LAYER
CLOUDINESS OVER THE NW BASIN AND W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 93W. AS
THE LOW DISSIPATES INLAND...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO
A REMNANT TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING...DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM THE SW ATLC
TO WESTERN PANAMA. AT THE SURFACE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-25 KTS
IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING UP TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS NOTICED OVER THE FAR SE
BASIN. THIS ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF
16N E OF 70W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W...CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 28N73W WHERE
IT TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY EXTENDING WEST TO NEAR THE FLORIDA
COAST AROUND 28N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 10 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST. MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE WINDS WILL
PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT SLIDES OFF
THE EASTERN CONUS COAST THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS
NEAR 25N61W NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N60W TO 20N64W. A WEAK
1018 MB IS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 25N61W. DESPITE THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW...THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 52W-60W...WHERE MAXIMIZED UPPER LEVEL LIFT
AND DIFFLUENCE IS NOTICED. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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