[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N25W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF AFRICA
ALONG 13N19W TO 07N21W TO 02N24W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 11N19W AND CONTAINS NO CONVECTION.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN
12W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS RIDGING IS LOCATED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OBSERVED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FAN
NORTHEASTWARD N OF 24N W OF 85W. AT THE SURFACE...A VERY SHALLOW
AND WEAK 1019 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N95W THAT CONTINUES TO
DRIFT N-NW AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE INLAND OVER SE TEXAS BY
EARLY SUNDAY. BEFORE THAT OCCURS HOWEVER...EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW
SOUTHWARD ALONG 94W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NORTHERLY
WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY VEER AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES AND BY SUNDAY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. AS FOR THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE NW GULF...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 90W THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED OVER THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA
COAST AND IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 81W-85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N72W TO A BASE OVER WESTERN
PANAMA NEAR 08N82W. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS LOCATED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR CONDITIONS WITH E-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT.
EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVER
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTWARD
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N. DUE TO SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL
LIFT AND MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N73W...INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE NEW ENGLAND REGION S-SW TO 32N75W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W CONTINUING SW TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 28N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. MODERATE
TO STRONG E-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AS IT SLIDES OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY
MONDAY. FARTHER EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 26N63W
THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 27N61W TO 19N64W.
MOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS OCCURRING UNDER
MAXIMIZED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN
53W-62W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 34N45W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
FROM 32N26W TO 26N32W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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