[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING ALONG 11N16W THEN S TO 3N18W WHERE
THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-35W THEN
TURNS S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 10W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING ACROSS S MEXICO
NEAR VERACRUZ TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AT
10/0900 UTC NEAR DAYTONA BEACH S OF CEDAR KEY NEAR TO 28N84W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N91W. A WEAK 1018 MB LOW
DEVELOPED AT 10/0900 UTC IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING NE ALONG 29N93W THEN CONNECTS TO THE ABOVE
STATIONARY FRONT. A SECOND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
SURFACE LOW S ALONG 25N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO
THE NW GULF ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 26N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA/E TEXAS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/LOW TO INLAND OVER MEXICO AND
S TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
10/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 22N91W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR
18N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S
OVER THE TEXAS INTO THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND OVER LOUISIANA
TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SE
INTO THE NW ATLC SUN CONTINUING E EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS E CUBA/HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA/PANAMA DOMINATING MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
COVERING THE AREA W OF 68W. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS
THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N BETWEEN 59W-70W
INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ABC ISLANDS. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN THE HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WHICH ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF
18N W OF 85W. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ALL BUT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO
THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC
AT 10/0900 UTC NEAR 32N71W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 28N79W TO
24N81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND
BERMUDA BEING AMPLIFIED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH
32N56W ACROSS E CUBA/HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N63W TO 23N64W. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN
55W-61W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC E OF 50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL
AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 34N46W. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE TROPICAL
ATLC ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N41W COVERING THE
AREA S OF 22N BETWEEN 28W-65W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL SHIFT E ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TODAY.
COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL EXTEND ACROSS BERMUDA TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND FROM 32N58W TO 27N80W EARLY SUN THEN
WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE LATE SUN. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW ATLC SUN CONTINUING E
THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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