[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COAST OF AFRICA...AND THE BORDER
OF GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU...NEAR 11N15W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR
5N16W AND IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO
3S40W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4S45W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 5W AND 32W...AND FROM 3S TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
ALREADY-DISSIPATED MEXICO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THAT WAS
OCCURRING FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 100W AND 103W DURING THE LAST
EIGHT HOURS...IS BEING BLOWN INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW
CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD IN RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND FLOW...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS TO 23N87W TO 20N94W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG 80W ALONG THE PANAMA COAST...ACROSS
PANAMA...CROSSING TO THE SOUTH OF 17N70W...EXITING THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N62W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
26N57W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE
TO 16N72W...TO 11N80W...BEYOND COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS RELATIVE TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT ARE IN NEW MEXICO...
TEXAS...AND MEXICO RIGHT NOW. THE CURRENT WIND CONDITIONS IN...
AND THE FORECAST WIND CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR...THE
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
73W AND 79W ARE WINDS FROM NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WITH SPEEDS FROM 25
TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FEET IN
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL. OTHER WIND CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 65W AND 84W...WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST-
TO-EAST WITH SPEEDS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 10 TO 13 FEET. PLEASE CONSULT THE MIAHSFAT2 FOR SPECIFIC
DETAILS ABOUT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS. LOW CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE BORDER AREA OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF
80W...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
19N60W 15N70W 10N78W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N65W TO
27N71W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 27N71W TO
28N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 28N80W...JUST TO THE
WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 24N80W
IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 24N70W BEYOND 32N59W. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N57W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N59W TO A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N59W TO 26N59W AND 19N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 25N32W TO 17N34W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF
17N TO THE EAST OF 53W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
35N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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