[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131142
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
06N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N15W TO 04N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W THEN TO 01S47W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 20W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING
THAT SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE TAMPA BAY
REGION NEAR 28N83W SW ALONG 23N90W TO 22N95W THEN SOUTH TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N REMAINS FAIRLY
PRECIPITATION FREE...HOWEVER S OF 25N ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF S OF 25N W OF 87W.
EAST OF THE FRONT...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO
BE GRADUALLY ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 23N85W
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ONCE THE TWO
FRONTS MERGE LATER ON THIS MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD CLEARING THE GULF WATERS BY LATE MORNING INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NE WINDS
REMAINING BRISK THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT FOR A VERY SMALL PORTION OF THE
NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS
ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA TO ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING ON LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
18N W OF 78W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
EXPERIENCING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE
OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTRODUCING STRONG NE
WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS
MORNING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N79W SW TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N81W.
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS IS OCCURRING EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N W OF
72W AND FOCUSED ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM
OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA NEAR 27N79W SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
PRE-FRONTAL WITHIN AN AREA OF MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
25N71W TO 32N60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
30W-60W IS FAIRLY BENIGN THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
ALONG 47W STEMMING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA NEAR 40N47W. FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC REMAINING N OF 10N AND SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING ANALYZED ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 11N15W TO
18N19W TO 27N18W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG IS GENERATING INCREASED CLOUDINESS
EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS S-SW TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN





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