[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
06N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N15W TO 03N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 30W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LOCATED OVER THE OHIO AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS THIS
EVENING THAT SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW ALONG 29N83W TO 24N90W TO 21N95W THEN
SOUTH TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N
REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION FREE...HOWEVER S OF 25N ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW GULF S OF 25N W OF THE
FRONT...AND S OF 21N IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EAST OF THE
FRONT...A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF ALONG 26N82W TO 23N85W TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND PROGRESS EASTWARD CLEARING THE GULF WATERS
BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NE WINDS
REMAINING BRISK THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT FOR A VERY SMALL PORTION OF THE
NW CARIBBEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ANALYZED FROM WESTERN
CUBA TO ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
IS EXPERIENCING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH E-NE TRADES IN THE
RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTRODUCING
STRONG NE WINDS IN ITS WAKE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS
EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NE U.S. WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED TO 32N70W AND A
LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 28N74W TO 27N80W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT S OF 28N. EAST OF THE FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
25N72W TO 32N63W. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD BY MORNING AND
BRING STRONG W-NW WINDS TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC OFFSHORE ZONE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN
30W-60W IS FAIRLY BENIGN THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
ALONG 50W STEMMING FROM A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA NEAR 42N50W. FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE EASTERN ATLC REMAINING N OF 12N AND IS PROVIDING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS S-SW TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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