[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN LIBERIA NEAR
7N11W TO 7N12W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N12W TO 4N20W...
3N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S53W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND IT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA BEYOND 32N70W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 27N80W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N91W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS
ALONG 31N68W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE THAT STARTS FROM CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 26N70W...
BEYOND 32N63W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL 77W/78W NEAR JAMAICA. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM COLOMBIA
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW HAS A GENERALLY EASTERLY COMPONENT.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 12N73W IN COLOMBIA COASTAL
WATERS...THROUGH NORTHWESTERN COASTAL COLOMBIA TO 7N78W ALONG
THE COAST...AND THEN WESTWARD CONTINUING EVENTUALLY INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS DISCERNIBLE ONLY BY SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 27N30W 23N34W TO 18N43W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS DISCERNIBLE ONLY BY
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME WITH THIS TROUGH.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N46W TO 28N53W TO 26N62W...
INTO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N87W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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