[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100548
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N16W TO 02N26W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER
WEST TEXAS. PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS...THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS INDUCED CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF GALVESTON
BAY NEAR 29N95W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM
THE LOW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 89W-95W...
INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SW MISSISSIPPI.
WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING INTO THE NW GULF WATERS...N-NW
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WEST OF THE FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EASTWARD
RETREATING RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING SE WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE GULF ONCE AGAIN WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON THE DOOR STEP OF
THE NW GULF WATERS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC
NEAR 07N55W NW TO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N84W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED
N OF 10N AND IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...AND OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN
60W-67W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC
REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 45W UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE...THESE FAIR CONDITIONS ARE
REINFORCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST-WEST ALONG 29N/30N
BETWEEN A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N52W AND A 1021 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N74W WHICH EXTENDS INFLUENCE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. A SLIGHT
WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N65W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N72W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS LOCATED N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-50W AND SUPPORTS A
1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N40W AND A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS...ONE EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N43W AND
THE OTHER ANALYZED FROM 27N36W TO 19N41W. MOST OF THE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED EAST OF THE LOW CENTER N OF
30N BETWEEN 32W-39W...AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
DETACHED SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SE. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES NEAR 38N27W SOUTHWARD TO 23N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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