[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092340
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N15W ALONG
2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W TO 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM S...AND 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
18W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN SITTING NEAR THE TEXAS COAST
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS NOW RECEIVED THE UPPER LEVEL PUSH
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SW TEXAS TO BEGINNING MOVING. AS OF
2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER TO A 1008 MB LOW JUST OFFSHORE NEAR 28N96W WHERE IT
BECOMES COLD TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 24N98W CONTINUING INLAND
INTO MEXICO. A STRONG LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT WITH A LARGE AREA OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER AND
STATIONARY FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 91W-95W IMPACTING SRN
LOUISIANA AND FAR ERN TEXAS. STRONG NW WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ARE
ALREADY BEING OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG SE WINDS
ALSO UP TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. THE
CONVERGENCE OF THESE TWO DIRECTIONS OF WIND IS LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN
LOUISIANA. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALSO WELL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT RANGING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO SRN ALABAMA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO DRY
AIR ALOFT OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE BASIN AND WELL E OF THE
FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE BASIN
WITH STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT AND STRONG WINDS
BEHIND IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN
VENEZUELA IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE ONLY AREA OF
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS IS NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG 19N69W TO 17N75W SUPPORTING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE N OF THE AXIS. NE-E
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING 25 KTS
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A COLD FRONT THAT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE
WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N76W IS PROVIDING
FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE SW N ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF
TURKS AND CAICOS ALONG 22N63W 21N67W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE AXIS. A SECOND
WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W FROM 24N-29N CAUSING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF THE AXIS. ALOFT...MOSTLY ZONAL WLY FLOW
COVERS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN. FARTHER E...A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 37N44W TO 28N32W SUPPORTING A 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N40W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS EXTEND FROM
THE LOW CENTER. THE FIRST IS ALONG 30N37W 26N37W 22N42W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE AXIS. THE SECOND TROUGH IS
ALONG 30N40W 28N42W 28N46W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE AXIS. MOSTLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ERN ATLC S OF 28N. TO THE N...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
30W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE E NEAR 34N18W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED JUST OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 30N16W TO 15N18W. THE TROUGH IS CAUSING
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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