[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N16W TO 01N30W TO 01N41W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER
WEST TEXAS. PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE LAST FEW DAYS...THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS INDUCED CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST WITH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA BORDER NEAR 30N94W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW TO 25N94W THEN TO THE MEXICO COAST
NEAR 21N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 85W-94W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS...N-NW
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY WEST OF THE FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EASTWARD RETREATING
RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING S-SE WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS W OF 90W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE GULF ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BE ON THE DOOR STEP OF THE NW GULF WATERS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF
THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC
NEAR 08N56W NW TO OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N84W. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED
N OF 10N AND IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH E-NE TRADES IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-76W...AND OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 60W-68W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC
REMAINS RATHER BENIGN WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING
AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION W OF 45W UNDER MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE...THESE FAIR CONDITIONS ARE
REINFORCED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST-WEST ALONG
29N/30N BETWEEN A TRIO OF HIGHS...ONE A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 30N53W AND TWO 1021 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 29N65W AND
29N74W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N69W TO
HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 63W-74W. FARTHER EAST...WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS LOCATED N OF 23N BETWEEN 30W-45W AND SUPPORTS A
1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N40W AND A PAIR OF SURFACE
TROUGHS...ONE EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N44W AND
THE OTHER ANALYZED FROM 25N39W TO 15N43W. MOST OF THE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED EAST OF THE LOW CENTER N OF
30N BETWEEN 32W-38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO LOCATED EAST OF
THE DETACHED SURFACE TROUGH FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 34W-39W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES NEAR 38N25W
SOUTHWARD TO 20N30W. LASTLY...A SURFACE TROUGH...PRIMARILY
DENOTING A WIND SHIFT...IS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 30N17W TO NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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