[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 4N13W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N13W TO 2N30W TO 1N40W TO BRAZIL NEAR
1N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 19W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
W GULF W OF 92W DUE TO SURFACE RETURN FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH FAIR WEATHER. ALSO EXPECT BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE N GULF COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER
PUERTO RICO FROM 20N65W TO 16N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N
HISPANIOLA...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. BROKEN COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N AND W
OF 80W. MORE SHOWERS DOTS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N63W
27N71W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER
E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N54W TO N OF PUERTO RICO
NEAR 20N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 29N BETWEEN
50W-54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE FRONT. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE W
OF THE FRONT TO THE BAHAMAS. A 1039 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 43N18W. 15-20 KT EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 50W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC ALONG 26W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING SHOWERS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE TWO ATLANTIC FRONTS TO MERGE WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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