[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
04N12W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N12W TO 02N20W TO 02N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W
TO 06N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO
05N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 30N99W
WHICH IS PROVIDING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NE
MEXICO AND THE NW GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NW OF A LINE FROM 24N98W TO 30N93W. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 27N89W. THE HIGH IS PROVIDING OVERALL DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY E OF 94W. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD BY LATE SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE
TEXAS GULF COAST MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE
BASIN. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W AND CONTINUES
SW ALONG 16N70W TO 13N78W TO 10N81W. NE TRADES REMAIN STRONG IN
THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT WITH LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 75W-84W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND
EXTENDS AN AXIS ALONG 63W TO A BASE NEAR 30N. THIS TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N65W NEAR BERMUDA SW TO
29N73W. THIS FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ONCE
AGAIN COMMENCE MOVEMENT OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N53W TO 25N60W TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO
NEAR 18N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INFLUENCE
EASTWARD TO 68W AND IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED
NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 43N18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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