[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2335 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

MOST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. ONLY A
SMALL PORTION OF IT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
TO ABOUT 5N12W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS WSW FROM THIS POINT ALONG 3N20W
2N30W 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ. SCATTERED WEAK
TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
NW BASIN GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEPICTED ON
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY N OF 25N W OF 92W. OVERCAST MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW BASIN.
WSW FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF PROVIDING DRY AIR AND
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A WEAKENING 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
ERN BASIN NEAR 27N85W. WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HIGH CENTER GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E OUT OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED STARTING LATE SUNDAY...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN MONDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SRN EXTENSION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
WESTERN PUERTO RICO 18N67W ENDING AT 15N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO AND WITHIN 75 NM
W OF THE BOUNDARY. ENE TRADES REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM OFF
THE COAST OF ERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND WRN
PANAMA. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WITH RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE BASIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WRN N ATLC W OF 45W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO OUR
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N57W TO NEAR 27N62W. AS THIS FRONT
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE REGION ALONG 32N50W CONTINUING INTO
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ACROSS WRN PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 140 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY N
OF 24N. ONCE THE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARY MERGE...A SINGLE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
6-9 HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW
TROPICAL WATERS OF THE ATLC FROM 13N52W TO 6N55W GENERATING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS.
OTHERWISE... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A STRONG 1037 MB HIGH
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 43N18W IS KEEPING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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