[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2335 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
WSW FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 2N27W TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
17W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE SRN STATES. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG
30N87W CONTINUING SW TO THE CITY OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 22N98W.
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY N OF 26N...BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND
MORE INTENSE S OF 26N UP TO 65 NM W OF THE FRONT. MARINE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NW BASIN INDICATE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE
GULF...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN BAY
OF CAMPECHE BY MONDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION LINGERING IN THIS REGION. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NW BASIN WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN
THIS EVENING SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. JUST WIDELY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS ARE DEPICTED
ON THE PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR. LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE
DAY SHOWED SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COAST OF BELIZE AND WRN HONDURAS OFF TO 90 NM OFFSHORE. A FAIRLY
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE AREA GENERATING
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NRN COLOMBIA. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEFORE THE
SRN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC ANALYZED
ALONG 32N58W TO 28N69W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH
THIS BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. TO THE SW OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ERN CUBA EXTENDING FROM
27N72W TO 20N77W. THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS LIMITED
AS WELL DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WRN ATLC W OF 63W. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR
28N78W. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE ERN ATLC
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH FAIR
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURES NEAR
THE ITCZ IS GENERATING A STRONG SURFACE GRADIENT THAT COVERS A
GREAT PART OF THE BASIN WITH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF
FLOW OF 20-25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE ERN CONUS
SEABOARD IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS N OF
27N W OF FRONT GENERATING SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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