[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 8N13W TO 7N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N14W ALONG
4N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
4S39W. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 19W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SPEED ACROSS THE NRN GULF
OF MEXICO TONIGHT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND OF
FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG 26N90W 23N95W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 21N97W...AS OF 0300 UTC. A VERY SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS IS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF FROM 18N24N
BETWEEN 92W-99W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 130 NM
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF. THE SE GULF REMAINS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE ERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING THE FRONT AND
PROVIDING MAINLY WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE BASIN WITHIN 24 HOURS. STRONG NLY
WINDS OF MOSTLY 25 KTS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE FAR SW CORNER STARTING
AT 0600 UTC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY SW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AROUND A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE W ATLC. MOST OF THE BASIN IS COVERED
WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A PATCH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN
84W-89W. NE-E TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS THE AREA
REACHING 30 KTS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE W
ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE
STRONG WINDS. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC
TONIGHT ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC WITH AXIS
ALONG 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IS BEGINNING
TO EMERGE OVER THE FAR W ATLC WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A COLD
FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC LATER TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A WEAK 1023 MB HIGH IS N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 29N75W.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THE E ALONG 32N55W 29N66W BECOMING
DISSIPATING TO 28N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN EXTENDS FROM THE
TAIL OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG
24N75W 22N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 25N-29N. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 46W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG 30W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS S OF THE RIDGE
ALONG 27N25W TO 13N38W SUPPORTING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE WRN COAST OF AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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