[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W TO BRAZIL NEAR
2N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N
BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 1500
UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA TO THE NW
GULF TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING IS NOTED
NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 25 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH A
GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. FURTHER E...A 1026 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.
5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. 15 KT E WINDS
ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N AND W OF 93W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF FROM 23N-29N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 85W-89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NAMELY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA...
NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 82W-89W...AND OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INCREASED
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF
82W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N68W
TO 29N72W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. FURTHER S...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N72W TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CUBA NEAR 20N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO 30N50W THUS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS
EASTERLY FLOW FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN W AFRICA AND 50W. A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC PRODUCING 25-30 KT WINDS FROM 15N-25N E OF 50W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N29W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
15N-25N E OF 25W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO BE
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N77W TO S FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT THE
TAIL END OF THE OTHER COLD FRONT TO BE FROM 30N66W TO N OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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