[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
03N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W TO 01N42W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR
47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN
35W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE NE FLORIDA
COAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N81W TO 23N76W OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. THIS WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO
30N84W TO 27N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING AS WELL AS N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-91W IN THE VICINITY OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N W OF 91W ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 95W. AT THE SURFACE BENEATH THIS
RIDGING...LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS NOTED SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...SURFACE RIDGING IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDING MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS E
OF 95W. W OF 95W...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID-WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS
EVENING DUE TO VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
78W BUT IS HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE
SURFACE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO BE
STRAIGHT FORWARD IN THAT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL
PERSIST DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE
SW NORTH ATLC. STRONGER WINDS TO MODERATE GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 73W TO 77W. OTHERWISE THIS EVENING...A FEW SHALLOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE BASIN WITHIN 30 NM OF
A LINE FROM 18N78W TO 16N83W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 31N81W TO
23N76W OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. THIS TROUGHING IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT N OF 26N E
OF 65W OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS CONTINUING TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 75W TO THE
FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLC WITH MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. TO THE NE OF THIS RIDGE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC WITH
AXIS FROM 37N42W TO 30N56W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N42W THAT CONTINUES SW TO 26N57W
THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 24N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
29N38W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IS ANALYZED FROM 30N27W TO 26N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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