[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 3N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N19W ALONG
3N30W 1N40W EQ49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NE GULF
WITH AXIS NOW DOWN THE WRN COAST OF FLORIDA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN FLORIDA N OF 28N E OF
86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS
THE N CENTRAL GULF FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 87W-91W NEAR A SURFACE
TROUGH PARALLELING THE COASTLINE FROM 29N89W TO 25N96W. OVERCAST
SKIES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE
TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DUE TO MODERATE DRY AIR ALOFT. MAINLY SE WINDS COVER THE ARE S
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS. N OF THE
TROUGH...NE-E WINDS OF 15 KTS ARE OBSERVED WITH SOME STATIONS
REPORTING 20 KTS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO LIFT N AND
DISSIPATE AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE BASIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR
ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE COAST OF PANAMA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY
AIR ALOFT NO ACTIVE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT BESIDES A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER JAMAICA. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND
THE WATERS TO THE E. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS W OF 77W N OF 29N. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE
RIDGE AROUND A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 36N70W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS A LITTLE INTO THE RIDGE. THE FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N44W TO 27N59W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 25N70W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE NE
TO 31N34W THEN N TO THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 42N29W. THE UPPER
RIDGE SUPPORTS A WEAK 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 30N39W...AND A 1026 MB
HIGH TO THE NE NEAR 41N18W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TO THE E NEAR
36N20W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 30N26W TO 25N29W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 9N16W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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