[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271138
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO
3N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N19W...THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG
ALONG 24W...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 4S41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
AREA FROM 5N TO THE BRAZIL COAST BETWEEN 39W AND 51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
5N TO THE EAST OF 39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 27N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 92W/93W FROM 22N TO 28N. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 87W. BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 86W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS OF 27/0000 UTC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND FORECAST IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
77W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE AND/OR WILL BE RANGING FROM 12 TO 16 FT.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A TROUGH IS TO
THE NORTH OF 32N74W 32N56W 33N43W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...
AND THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO
28N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N60W TO 25N70W...
ENDING NEAR 25N77W JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF
ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W
25N55W 19N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N13W...TO A 29N27W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 18N46W...TO 14N58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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