[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280541
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
13N16W TO 6N19W TO 3N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N22W...
CROSSING THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG ALONG 26W...TO 2S36W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 5S42W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 6N TO THE BRAZIL COAST BETWEEN 40W AND 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND FORECAST IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND
77W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE AND/OR WILL BE RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FT.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO
29N52W TO 25N58W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N38W TO 30N42W AND 27N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 27N50W 26N60W 26N65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N45W
26N53W 26N60W 24N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N11W...TO 25N23W
20N36W TO 13N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT







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