[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W CONTINUING ALONG 6N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W
WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH
AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE
PRIME MERIDIAN TO 12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER
THE SE CONUS NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS S
OVER THE GULF FROM A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IS OVER THE NW GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE NW GULF IN
THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A
RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS
THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 95W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF
THROUGH WED THEN INCREASE WED NIGHT AND THU. THE HIGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE W ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THU ALLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
ENTER THE NW GULF LATE THU/EARLY FRI. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE FRI AND FROM
NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY SAT THEN
MOVE SE OF THE GULF LATE SAT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N83W
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWERS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC AT 20/2100 UTC EXTENDS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W
TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NW GUATEMALA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
MEANDER BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SHIFT SE INTO THE W ATLC. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD THU INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY SAT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES E CUBA BY EARLY SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 30N EXTENDING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 20/2100 UTC NEAR 32N61W ALONG
27N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 30N WITHIN 180
NM W AND WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM E OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE
FRONT TO THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE E CONUS IS BUILDING INTO THE W
ATLC W OF THE FRONT. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 60W. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NE ATLC ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO
25N31W NARROWING AS IT CONTINUES ALONG 18N48W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA JUST S OF TRINIDAD. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 18N E OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY
A 1030 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N28W TO 25N50W. A LARGE E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS WITH THE AXIS ALONG 7N/8N E OF 53W. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE AND INTO THE E
ATLC THU BEFORE STALLING ON FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E ACROSS
THE W ATLC IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUE AND CONTINUE INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC WED NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE W ATLC. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE FAR W ATLC WATERS EARLY WED AND DISSIPATE. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR W ATLC LATE FRI/EARLY SAT REACHING
FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA LATE SAT AND DISSIPATING IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC LATE SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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