[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
05N15W TO 02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W TO 02N37W TO 01N46W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 10W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EXTENDS INFLUENCE NORTHWARD OVER THE
GULF PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ADVECT FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SE
CONUS ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. AT
THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FAR
NORTHERN WATERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETAIN CONTROL
OVER THE BASIN. BEYOND TUESDAY...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 16N81W
AND IS PROVIDING MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND
FAIR CONDITIONS WITH NO NOTABLE AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION.
WHILE A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION...THE TAIL END OF THAT FRONT IS ANALYZED AS A WEAKENING
STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. WITH VERY LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...WITH HIGHER WINDS LOCATED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION HOWEVER...STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W THAT EXTENDS
SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W THEN TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N78W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT REMAINING N OF 30N
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 30N. WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE
FRONT TO GALE FORCE ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS INTO THE
CENTRAL NORTH ATLC. WEST OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFF THE EASTERN CONUS AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FARTHER EAST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR
37N19W CONTINUES TO RESULT IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SW TO 32N29W TO 21N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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