[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N11W TO EQ20W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 2S30W
2S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N E OF 17W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 4S-2N BETWEEN 35W-41W AND WITHIN 100
NM ON N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF REMAINS FAIR TODAY DUE TO A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED IN THE SE CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS
BRINGING A GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAINLY N OF 22N. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL FROM LINGERING INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED TO THE LATE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS CARRYING MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC REGION TO ALL ACROSS THE GULF PROVIDING
CIRRUS STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LIFTING N FROM
THE SRN GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER N-ERN NICARAGUA
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH DRY AIR
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS
AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A
FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO
LINGERING INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED TO A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED
FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N87W. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA GUSTING
TO 25 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC REGION
SUPPORTING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA NEAR
35N68W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N65W TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 25N72W BECOMING
STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN TROUGH CUBA NEAR 23N80W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTICED N OF 29N WITHIN 290 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT GENERATING SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE ROLL CLOUD TRACKING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 20 NM AHEAD OF
IT. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
ENE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
OFF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE THE AZORES AND PORTUGAL NEAR
38N18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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