[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 7N17W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-38W THEN S OF THE
EQUATOR INT0 SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-38W AND S OF 7N W OF 40W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE NE GULF COAST
MEANDERING NEAR 30N FROM E LOUISIANA TO OVER NE FLORIDA. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS TO OVER
E CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
ACROSS THE E GULF AND GEORGIA TO OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS UPPER
RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF
AND OVER THE SE STATES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN THE GULF NW OF LINE FROM 27N85W TO 20N97W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE GULF/NW CARIBBEAN S OF
THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME PASSING THIN HIGH CLOUDS. THE WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST THEN WEAKENS OVER THE
NW GULF LATER TODAY. IT WILL THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AND QUICKLY TRACK
NE SAT TO ACROSS THE SE CONUS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE
E BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY SUN AND MOVE SE
OF THE GULF LATE SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S ACROSS THE GULF
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED
OVER SW NICARAGUA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING N THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN/SE GULF.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAINS OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN
68W-80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. THE
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE FAST MOVING SURFACE TROUGH THAT WENT
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY WED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 58W-66W INCLUDING TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATE
SUN INTO MON BUT WEAKEN AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS S ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT
JUST INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N73W TO 29N76W. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC W OF 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS UNDERCUTTING THE
FRONT WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W 27N72W TO OVER THE
E GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 23N80W. A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N53W
22N57W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO 11N69W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N42W TO 26N51W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW NEAR 23N61W. A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S AND E OF THE
FRONT N OF THE LOW CENTER. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS COVERING THE FAR E ATLC N OF 23N E OF 30W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING S
ACROSS THE AZORES TO NEAR 20N36W GIVING THE E ATLC FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTED ALONG 28N
TODAY THEN SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AS A SURFACE LOW FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS NE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND DEEPENS AS
IT QUICKLY MOVES NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A STRONG COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW ATLC
EARLY SUN. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM 31N73W TO W CUBA
LATE SUN AND FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY MON AFTERNOON.
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE THE W ATLC BEHIND THE
FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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