[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WWWW UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N14W ALONG 7N16W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR36W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 TO
120 NM ALONG THE ENTIRE ITCZ AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE W OF A LINE FROM 8N49W TO
2N39W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO THE W ATLC. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF AT
16/0600 UTC. AT 16/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM OVER LOUISIANA JUST S
OF LAKE CHARLES ALONG 29N94W TO INLAND OVER CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 16/0900 UTC. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS TO OVER E CONUS WITH
THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS THE E GULF
AND GEORGIA TO OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE W GULF AND OVER
THE SE STATES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI AND OVER NE MEXICO/S
TEXAS INTO THE GULF WATERS FROM 24N-27N W OF 95W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF NW OF LINE FROM FORT
MYERS FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE GULF/NW CARIBBEAN S OF THE ABOVE
ACTIVITY WITH ACCOMPANYING CLEAR SKIES. W GULF COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT THEN LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT FRI
AND FRI NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT
THEN MOVE RAPIDLY NE SAT INTO THE SE CONUS WITH COLD FRONT FROM
SE LOUISIANA TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE
NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY SUN AND MOVE SE OF THE GULF LATE SUN.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD S ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WITH THE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM ACROSS E PANAMA THROUGH AN UPPER HIGH OVER
CENTRAL NICARAGUA THEN N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A WEAK
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN/SE GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINS OVER
THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 71W-80W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN/W TROPICAL ATLC
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N68W TO 11N58W INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...TRINIDAD...AND TOBAGO. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN INTO MON BUT WEAKEN
AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS S FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DRAPING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS BERMUDA TO 29N74W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N79W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
ACROSS JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W
OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BRIDGED THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AT 16/0900 UTC WITH A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 27N70W WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 24N80W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N53W 23N57W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 12N71W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N42W ALONG 25N55W WHERE IT
BECOMES A WARM FRONT ALONG 26N58W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR
24N62W. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES S FROM THE LOW ALONG
21N63W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 56W-60W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF
THE LOW CENTER. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS COVERING THE FAR E ATLC N OF 23N E OF 30W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE
AZORES SSW ALONG 32N34W TO NEAR 23N47W GIVING THE E ATLC FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL
REMAIN THROUGH FRI THEN SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY
SUN THEN WILL EXTEND FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN
AFTERNOON AND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY MON. STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






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