[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SSW FROM A 1009 MB LOW OVER THE
AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 3N20W...WHERE THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WSW ALONG 1S30W EQ40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 3S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. AT SURFACE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS
BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...RANGING FROM 10-25 KT
W OF 87W. THIS FLOW ACTS IN RESPONSE OF THE LOWER PRESSURES
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. FROM THIS
SCENARIO...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W TO THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N89W.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS INLAND...A FEW
AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
QUICKLY MOVING NE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL BASIN N OF 27N BETWEEN
85W-94W. ANOTHER ROUND OF WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF WATERS WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA GIVING A
RELATIVELY STABLE AND SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A FEW
CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND FAR EASTERN
BASIN...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF GUADELOUPE. THESE
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT SOME MODERATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS UPPER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N73W TO NEAR 28N78W. OTHER THAN
CLOUDINESS...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT. THE SAME UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N42W TO 26N50W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 24N60W TO PUERTO RICO NEAR
18N65W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT N OF 24N. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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