[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N20W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W AND THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 38W
TO 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE EQUATOR AND 28W TO 04N49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF BASIN. THIS FLOW ALOFT
PRECEDES A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS AND THE OTHER EXTENDING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN. CURRENTLY...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W ALONG 28N88W TO THE LOUISIANA COAST
NEAR 30N92W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 29N89W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITHIN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
INTRODUCE THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE NW GULF WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY SHIFTING WINDS NORTHEASTERLY
BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT THEREAFTER STALLS AND WEAKENS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N85W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ALONG 85W TO THE SE CONUS. WITH THIS FEATURE ORIGINATING OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA...MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
PROVIDING A RELATIVELY STABLE AND SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS KEEPING THE BASIN VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY NOTABLE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND BARBADOS FROM 10N-15N
BETWEEN 57W-64W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IS ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC REMAINING N OF 28N W OF
40W. THIS AREA OF TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC ZONE ANALYZED FROM
32N76W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE E-NE. THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W EXTENDING SW TO 26N50W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 24N60W TO PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-32N...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT S OF
24N EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF 40W
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE
OF 10 TO 20 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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