[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 7N17W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W INT0 SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
3S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-4N BETWEEN 11N-13W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 1N28W 2N42W TO 4N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NE
GULF THAT AT 15/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW E OF
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W INTO THE GULF TO 28N85W WHERE IT
BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 27N89W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS
ALONG 86W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
MEXICO INTO THE W GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF LINE FROM 24N91W TO 20N97W TO
INLAND OVER MEXICO AND SE TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE SE GULF/NW CARIBBEAN S OF THE FRONT AND
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
IN THEN NE GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS TODAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT REACHING FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO NE MEXICO THU THEN STALL FROM N FLORIDA TO BAY OF
CAMPECHE FRI AND SAT. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT
IN THE NW GULF ON SAT THEN QUICKLY MOVE TO FAR W FLORIDA LATE
SAT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EARLY SUN AND SE OF THE GULF LATE SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED
OVER SW NICARAGUA WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS EXTENDING N TO OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 86W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN/SE GULF AND
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINS
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N80W OVER HISPANIOLA TO NEAR
19N69W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH JUST E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 32N57W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS WSW INTO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N43W ALONG 29N45W TO 26N50W WHERE IT
MEANDERS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 23N60W TO 20N63W WHERE IT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO
THE E EXTENDING FROM 31N33W TO 26N36W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SECOND NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO
THE E ATLC ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING S ACROSS THE AZORES
TO NEAR 25N32W GIVING THE E ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. A
FAST MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 15N58W TO 11N56W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE REACHED BARBADOS AND
WILL MOVE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
SE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS EARLY FRI
REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 29N75W SAT. THE FRONT WILL THEN
LIFT BACK N SUN AS THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES N OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N76W
TO S FLORIDA LATE SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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